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Gdańsk University of Technology

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Market Price Prediction of Property Rights from Gas Fired Plants or Plants with Total Installed CHP Source Capacity Below 1 MW until 2025

The resolution on the Polish Energy Policy until 2030 (PEP-30) was adopted by the Council of Ministers on 10 November 2009. The document specifies the combined electricity and heat generation as a direction of pursuing the goals of energy efficiency, fuel and energy supply security, competitive fuel and energy markets development, and reduction of the energy sector’s environmental impact. PEP-30 assumes that electricity generation from high-efficiency co-generation will double by 2020 compared to 2006. Since 2007, a support scheme for CHP generators has been in place in Poland, in the form of transferable property rights from the energy origin, so-called certificates. The yellow certificate is granted for energy generated in gas-fired plants or in units with a capacity below 1 MW. The amendment to the Energy Law extends the support scheme’s validity until the end of 2018. This paper presents the market price prediction for property rights in CHP until 2025 for gas fired plants or plants with the total CHP source installed capacity below 1 MW, assuming the scheme’s extension in its present form.

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