Publications Repository - Gdańsk University of Technology

The paper presents a reliability analysis of a sea cliff slope. The cliff, located in Jastrzębia Góra, is characterised by a complicated geological structure. Although currently stable, it is in fact close to the limit state. The objective of this paper is to present the point estimate method (PEM) of determining the mean value and standard deviation of the safety factor of the slope. Assuming its normal distribution, these statistical parameters make it possible to determine the probability of failure pf and the reliability index β. In order to reduce the number of random variables, a sensitivity analysis was performed. The results were verified by the Monte Carlo simulation method. The main advantage of this approach is to minimize the number of sample calculations required to obtain estimators of the parameters investigated.

Authors

• prof. dr hab. inż. Jarosław Przewłócki link open in new tab ,
• Lesław Zabuski,
• dr inż. Karol Winkelmann link open in new tab