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Gdańsk University of Technology

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Factors affecting low-temperature cracking of asphalt pavements: analysis of field observations using the ordered logistic model

Accurate identification of factors that primarily affect the number of low-temperature cracks is crucial for selection of road materials and planning of pavement maintenance. Field investigations of lowtemperature cracks were performed in the years 2014 and 2020 on the same 68 road sections being in service in typical traffic conditions. The collected data were statistically analysed using the ordered logistic regression model. Comparison of the odds ratios which were calculated on the basis of the model enabled ordering of the selected factors from those having the greatest effect on lowtemperature cracking of pavements to those with the least influence: (1) pavement age, (2) type of asphalt concrete, (3) modification of bitumen, (4) climatic zone (on the basis of low performance grade temperature). The odds of a section belonging to the group of cracked sections decreased by half when a polymer-modified bitumen was used in its binder course and asphalt base. Regardless of the considered factors, the odds of a pavement section being classified into the group of heavily cracked sections are comparable. It means that some external factors, including quality of paving works and bitumen chemistry, may prove the most crucial.

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