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Gdańsk University of Technology

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Application of Multinomial Logistic Regression to Model the Impact of Rainfall Genesis on the Performance of Storm Overflows: Case Study

In this study, a mathematical model was proposed to analyze the performance of storm overfows. The model included the infuence of rainfall genesis on the duration of storm overfow, its volume, and the maximum instantaneous fow. The multinomial logistic regression model, which has not been used so far to model objects located in a stormwater system, was proposed to simulate the duration of storm overfow. The Iman–Conover method, using the theoretical cumulative distributions determined on the basis of 45 – year rainfall sequences, was adopted to simulate the rainfall characteristics describing the overfow performance (total and maximum 30-min rainfall depth and duration). The simulations showed a signifcant impact of rainfall genesis on the parameters of the storm overfow. The model and the results presented in this study can be used at the stage of dimensioning storm overfows and to create an early warning system against undesirable phenomena in the stormwater system within urban catchments.

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