Repozytorium publikacji - Politechnika Gdańska

The paper refers to the possibilities of making operational decisions that would enable to ensure safety to a ship in the event of application of the statistical decision theory with consideration of an expected value of consequences as a criterion for making such a decision. General description includes conditions for carrying out transportation tasks by ships and it has been shown that following this description it is possible to develop a five-state set of situations at sea, which a ship can meet. It has been proved that the situations (elements of the set) can be considered as states of the process of occurring the particular situations, consecutively one by one. The paper provides definitions for probabilities of occurring the particular states (situations) contained in this set, in which a ship can carry out its cruise. The probabilities have been defined for a long operating time for a ship (t  ), which means that they are a limiting distribution of the process of state transitions. The theory of semi-Markov processes has been applied to determine the distribution. Based on the distribution and decision-making rules, a set of decisions that possibly may be taken in accordance with the assumed criterion of optimization, has been developed. Also the paper presents a simple example of calculation in order to demonstrate that determination of the consequences of making a decision is more important than estimation of the probability of occurrence of particular situations during a ship cruise.

Autorzy

• prof. dr hab. inż. Jerzy Girtler link otwiera się w nowej karcie