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Gdańsk University of Technology

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Publications from the year 2024

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  • A Computational Analysis of the Proton Affinity and the Hydration of TEMPO and Its Piperidine Analogs
    • Abolfazl Shiroudi
    • Maciej Śmiechowski
    • Jacek Czub
    • Mohamed A. Abdel-Rahman
    2024 CHEMPHYSCHEM

    The study investigated the impact of protonation and hydration on the geometry of nitroxide radicals using B3LYP and M06-2X methods. Results indicated that TEMPO exhibited the highest proton affinity in comparison to TEMPOL and TEMPONE. Two pathways contribute to hydrated protonated molecules. TEMPO shows lower first enthalpies of hydration (ΔH1-M), indicating stronger H-bonding interactions, while TEMPONE shows higher values, indicating weaker interactions with H2O. Solvent effects affect charge distribution by decreasing their atomic charge. Spin density (SD) is primarily concentrated in the NO segment, with minimal water molecule contamination. Protonation increases SD on N-atom, while hydration causes a more pronounced redistribution for water molecules. The stability of the dipolar structure (>N•+-O-) is evident in SD redistributions. The frontier molecular orbital (FMO) analysis of TEMPONE reveals a minimum EHOMO-LUMO gap (EH-L), enhancing the piperidine ring's reactivity. TEMPO is the most nucleophilic species, while TEMPONE exhibits strong electrophilicity. Transitioning from NO radicals to protonated forms increases the EH-L gap, indicating protonation stabilizes FMOs. Increased water molecules make the molecule less reactive, while increasing hydration decreases this energy gap, making the molecule more reactive. A smaller EH-L gap indicates the compound becomes softer and more prone to electron density and reactivity changes.

  • A Concept of Thermal Effort for Heat-Induced Metal Plasticity
    • Waldemar Dudda
    • Piotr Józef Ziółkowski
    • Paweł Ziółkowski
    • Mateusz Bryk
    • Janusz Badur
    2024 Materials

    This paper proposes a new concept of material effort that considers heat-induced plasticity for heat-resistant steels. These steels indicate a strength differential effect, a stress shearness effect, pressure sensitivity, and other features. Therefore, a three-parameter, temperature-dependent yield function was presented and, next, analytically and geometrically researched. To validate the accuracy of the formulated yield function, experiments were conducted with the designed specimens to characterize the heat-resistant steels St12T and 26H2MF, which underwent simple shear, uniaxial strain tension, and compression tests. The yield function was calibrated by using a simple analysis. Next, the calibrated constitutive equations were used to numerically determine the load–stroke responses of different tests. The numerical analysis showed that the proposed yield function based on three parameters could accurately describe the thermal effort in various loading conditions from the onset of yielding to the ultimate rupture. Accordingly, the proposed yield function is recommended to model material strength under various thermal loading conditions.

  • A dissimilar welded joint of grade 92 steel and AISI 304L steel obtained using IN82 buttering and IN617 fller: relationship of microstructure and mechanical properties
    • Hardik Sanjay Surkar
    • Amit Kumar
    • Sachin Sirohi
    • Shailesh M. Pandey
    • Aleksandra Świerczyńska
    • Dariusz Fydrych
    • Chandan Pandey
    2024 Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering

    Unfavourable operating conditions of equipment in the energy industry resulting from high-temperature loads determine the need to use special materials and technological solutions, including welding procedures. In this article, buttering using IN82 (ERNiCr-3) consumables was proposed as a method to improve the weldability of grade 92 steel joined by the gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW) process with AISI 304L (IN617 fller). The microstructural characterization of samples was carried out using an optical microscope, scanning electron microscope (SEM) and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The welded joint was further characterized by hardness, tensile (room temperature and at 620 °C temperature) and impact tests. Additionally, the fracture surfaces of tensile and impact tests were studied by SEM. Despite the confrmation of the difusion of alloying elements and signifcant changes in their concentration, which indicates the formation of Ti and Nb-rich phases, no welding imperfections were detected and favourable joint structures and acceptable properties were obtained. In particular, this concerns the limitation of the formation of brittle structures and the elimination of the untempered martensitic layer. At the same time, there was a signifcant decrease in the maximum hardness of heat-afected zone (HAZ) on the grade 92 steel side to a relatively low value of 310 HV, and a minimum tensile strength criterion of 600 MPa was achieved with a simultaneous increase in ductility (35% elongation) of the joint. Comparatively, when compared to a non-buttered welded joint, the joint produced with a buttering layer exhibited an increase in the elongation and impact toughness of the welded joint without any compromise in ultimate tensile strength (Sut). The fracture surface of tensile and impact-tested specimens was also characterized using SEM/EDS. Summarizing all the results, it can be concluded that the proposed GTAW procedure of grade 92 and 304L steels can be used in extreme working conditions, in ultra-supercritical power units or the petrochemical and chemical industries.

  • A Finite Element Approach for Wave Propagation in Elastic Solids
    • Arkadiusz Żak
    2024

    This book focuses on wave propagation phenomena in elastic solids modelled by the use of the finite element method. Although the latter is a well-established and popular numerical tool used by engineers and researchers all around the word the process of modelling of wave propagation can still be a challenge. The book introduces a reader to the problem by presenting a historical background and offering a broad perspective on the development of modern science and numerical methods. The principles of wave phenomena are clearly presented to the reader as well as the necessary background for understanding the finite element method, which is the following chapter of the book is viewed from the modeller point-of-view. Apart from the principles the book also addresses more advanced topics and problems including the use of the spectral-finite element method, the spline-based finite element method as well as the problems of undesired and hidden properties of discrete numerical models.

  • A framework for risk matrix design: A case of MASS navigation risk
    • Cunlong Fan
    • Jakub Montewka
    • Di Zhang
    • Zhepeng Han
    2024 ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION

    Risk matrix, a tool for visualizing risk assessment results, is essential to facilitate the risk communication and risk management in risk-based decision-making processes related to new and unexplored socio-technical systems. The use of an appropriate risk matrix is discussed in the literature, but it is overlooked for emerging technologies such as Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). In this study, a comprehensive framework for developing a risk matrix based on fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is proposed. In this framework, a linear function is defined where the risk index is treated as a response variable, while the probability and consequence indices are explanatory variables, with weights of these two indices representing their importance on given risk level. This significance is assessed by experts and quantified using AHP in interval type 2 fuzzy environment. A continuous risk diagram is then created and converted into a risk matrix that can be improved. To verify the feasibility of the proposed framework, a risk matrix is designed in the context of MASS grounding. The results show that the proposed approach is feasible. Our discussion results can provide new insights for the design of risk matrices and promote the management of MASS navigational risks.

  • A framework to analyse the probability of accidental hull girder failure considering advanced corrosion degradation for risk-based ship design
    • Krzysztof Wołoszyk
    • Floris Goerlandt
    • Jakub Montewka
    2024 RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY

    Ship’s hull girder failure could result from maritime accident that can cause human life loss, environmental disaster, and major economic impacts. In risk-based ship design paradigm, accounting for rare phenomena (e.g. ship-ship collision or grounding) is important to provide safe and durable structure. In-service corrosion-induced hull degradation should be considered at the design stage, as it can significantly affect structural strength. The current study presents a novel framework to estimate the probability of ship hull girder failure, accounting for novel corrosion modelling techniques and accidental damage. The associated uncertainties are considered using statistical sampling from evidence-based distributions. A state-of-the-art deterministic model for ultimate strength calculation is applied using Monte Carlo simulation approach, resulting in the probability of hull failure through a reliability assessment. Wave and still-water bending moments are considered random variables. Two case studies of tanker ships with varying sizes are executed to show the applicability of the proposed framework. The results indicate that proper consideration of corrosion is of high importance, as ageing can significantly increase the probability of failure if accidental damage happens. Therefore, whereas future research and model refinement are discussed, the presented framework can serve for risk-based ship design tool and assess existing structures’ safety.

  • A gap waveguide-based mechanically reconfigurable phase shifter for high-power Ku-band applications
    • Ali Farahbakhsh
    • Davood Zarifi
    • Michał Mrozowski
    2024 Scientific Reports

    This paper presents a novel design of a low-loss, reconfgurable broadband phase shifter based on groove gap waveguide (GGW) technology. The proposed phase shifter consists of a folded GGW and three bends with a few pins forming the GGW and one bend attached to a movable plate. This movable plate allows for adjustments to the folded waveguide length, consequently altering the phase of electromagnetic waves. The advantage of GGW technology is that it does not require electrical contact between diferent parts of a structure. Therefore, it enables the moving parts to slide freely without electromagnetic energy leakage, resulting in improved insertion loss in high-power applications. In addition, in the proposed design, the position of the input and output waveguide ports of the phase shifter remains fxed, which is advantageous from a practical point of view. As shown by measurement and simulation results, there is nearly 37% impedance bandwidth with the highest insertion loss of 0.6 dB, and the developed device has a maximum phase shift of 770° at the center frequency of 13GHz. The phase shifter can be used for various radar and satellite applications that require phase control, such as beamforming networks and phased array antennas.

  • A green route for high-performance bio-based polyurethanes synthesized from modified bio-based isocyanates
    • Joanna Brzoska
    • Joanna Smorawska
    • Ewa Głowińska
    • Janusz Datta
    2024 INDUSTRIAL CROPS AND PRODUCTS

    The need for sustainability and a circular economy leads to the development of innovative greener materials and technologies. This paper is focused on a novel class of bio-based polyurethanes (PUs) synthesized with the use of bio-monomers including bio-based isocyanates. The novelty of this work is related to the usage of bio-based modified isocyanate via a two-step solvent-free synthesis of novel cast bio-based poly(ester-urethanes) and poly(ether-urethanes). The designed and prepared bio-based PUs were analysed in terms of their chemical structure, thermal stability, mechanical and thermomechanical properties. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy confirmed the formation of urethane groups and allowed the calculation of the carbonyl index and the degree of phase separation. Differential scanning calorimetry and X-ray diffraction indicated the amorphous behavior of the obtained bio-based materials. It was established that not only the thermal stability but also the degradation steps depended on the structure of the hard segments and the phase separation between hard and soft segments. The modification of hard segments was also revealed in the results of thermomechanical and mechanical behavior of bio-PU which indicated a mixed phase structure.

  • A hierarchical observer for a non-linear uncertain CSTR model of biochemical processes
    • Mateusz Czyżniewski
    • Rafał Łangowski
    2024 Full text International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science

    The problem of estimation of unmeasured state variables and unknown reaction kinetic functions for selected biochemical processes modelled as a continuous stirred tank reactor is addressed in this paper. In particular, a new hierarchical (sequential) state observer is derived to generate stable and robust estimates of the state variables and kinetic functions. The developed hierarchical observer uses an adjusted asymptotic observer and an adopted super-twisting sliding mode observer. The stability of the proposed hierarchical observer is investigated under uncertainty in the system dynamics. The stability analysis of the estimation error dynamics is carried out based on the methodology associated with linear parameter-varying systems and sliding mode regimes. The developed hierarchical observer is implemented in the Matlab/Simulink environment and its performance is validated via simulation. The obtained satisfactory estimation results demonstrate high effectiveness of the devised hierarchical observer.

  • A learning community model: the Center for Innovative Education supporting academic didactics at Gdańsk University of Technology, Poland
    • Joanna Mytnik
    • Barbara Wikieł
    • Mariusz Kaczmarek
    2024 Global Journal of Engineering Education

    The current digital transformation requires academics to apply their pedagogical and technological skills to their teaching and professional development to address the newly emerging needs of the digital era. This study aims to analyse the operating model of the Center for Innovative Education (CIE) at Gdańsk University of Technology (Gdańsk Tech), Poland, as an incubator for professional development of academic staff at Gdańsk Tech, and outline the programmes carried out at the CIE. The focus is on systemic actions capable to elicit innovation at an organisational and personal level, including community building, higher education trend analyses, evidence-based professional training, designing new methods and tools for innovative teaching and appreciation programmes. The CIE’s offer extends to well-being support and providing measures against professional burnout. The establishment of the CIE enabled academic teachers at Gdańsk Tech to improve their professional competence and build a strong peer-learning community.

  • A Low-Profile 3-D Printable Metastructure for Performance Improvement of Aperture Antennas
    • Md Yeakub Ali
    • Ali Lalbakhsh
    • Sławomir Kozieł
    • Łukasz Gołuński
    • Foez Ahmed
    • Mohsen Asadnia
    2024 Full text Scientific Reports

    In order to increase the radiation performance of aperture-type antennas, this paper demonstrates a low-profile, planar, single-layer, three-dimensional (3-D) printable metastructure. The proposed hybridized metastructure is highly transparent as it is made out of novel hybrid meta-atoms having transmission coefficient magnitudes greater than -0.72 dB and fully complies with the near-field phase transformation principle. The hybridized design approach makes the metastructure planar, low-profile, light in weight, and compatible with additive printing technology. For the proof-of-concept, such metastructure is developed and numerically verified to enhance the radiation performance of a resonant cavity antenna (RCA). With the proposed metastructure, the peak directivity of the RCA is improved by 8.6 dBi (from 11.4 dBi to 20 dBi) at the operating frequency of 12.4 GHz. The aperture efficiency and 3-dB directivity bandwidth of the RCA with the metastructure are 41.46% and 16.5%, respectively. Using readily accessible thermoplastics or polymers and copper with cost-effective fused deposition modeling (FDM) 3-D printing technology, the proposed planar hybridized metastructure can be prototyped commercially.

  • A Low-Profile Metal-backed Dipole Loaded with Closely Coupled Arc-shaped Open Stubs for On-metal Tag Design with Wide Frequency Tuning Capability
    • Fuad Erman
    • Sławomir Kozieł
    • Eng-Hock Lim
    • Leifur Leifsson
    • Effariza Hanafi
    • Muthukannan Murugesh
    2024 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ANTENNAS AND PROPAGATION

    This research has presented a single-layer metal-backed dipole antenna, which consists of a feedline loaded with two pairs of closely-coupled arc-shaped open stubs, for designing a metal-mountable tag that features tuning capability over a wide range of frequency. Here, the stubs can generate sufficient inductive reactance for bringing down the tag resonant frequency tunable in both the regulated UHF RFID passbands (North American (NA) and Lower European (LEu) standards). Adjusting the stubs’ length can be utilized as a simple and effective tuning mechanism, enabling broadband frequency adjustment in between the two major spectra in a straightforward manner, while maintaining a maximum power transmission coefficient (τ=1). In addition, the proposed antenna structure is easy to construct. The tuning mechanism has enabled the antenna to match well with any commercial RFID chips, and it does not require the use of any external lumped components or shorting elements (vias or stubs). The proposed tag can be easily fabricated using an inexpensive flexible polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) substrate, which is broadly adopted by the RFID industry. Stable read performance is achievable, providing freedom of frequency tuning without the need to modify the radiator structure. The volume of the tag is reasonably small:   (28)2  1.5 mm3. It has a measured detection distance is 9.75 m (4 W EIRP) on metal surface in the NA RFID passband while 8.41 m (3.24 W EIRP) in the LEu passband.

  • A Machine Learning Approach for Estimating Overtime Allocation in Software Development Projects
    • Hammed Mojeed
    • Rafał Szłapczyński
    2024 Full text

    Overtime planning in software projects has traditionally been approached with search-based multi-objective optimization algorithms. However, the explicit solutions produced by these algorithms often lack applicability and acceptance in the software industry due to their disregard for project managers' intuitive knowledge. This study presents a machine learning model that learns the preferred overtime allocation patterns from solutions annotated by project managers and applied to four publicly available software development projects. The model was trained using 1092 instances of annotated solutions gathered from software houses, and the Random Forest Regression (RFR) algorithm was used to estimate the PMs' preference. The evaluation results using MAE, RMSE, and R2 revealed that RFR exhibits excellent predictive power in this domain with minimal error. RFR also outperformed the baseline regression models in all the performance measures. The proposed machine learning approach provides a reliable and effective tool for estimating project managers' preferences for overtime plans.

  • A machine learning approach to classifying New York Heart Association (NYHA) heart failure
    • Krystian Jandy
    • Paweł Weichbroth
    2024 Full text Scientific Reports

    According to the European Society of Cardiology, globally the number of patients with heart failure nearly doubled from 33.5 million in 1990 to 64.3 million in 2017, and is further projected to increase dramatically in this decade, still remaining a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. One of the most frequently applied heart failure classification systems that physicians use is the New York Heart Association (NYHA) Functional Classification. Each NYHA class describes a patient’s symptoms while performing physical activities, delivering a strong indicator of the heart performance. In each case, a NYHA class is individually determined routinely based on the subjective assessment of the treating physician. However, such diagnosis can suffer from bias, eventually affecting a valid assessment. To tackle this issue, we take advantage of the machine learning approach to develop a decision-tree, along with a set of decision rules, which can serve as additional blinded investigator tool to make unbiased assessment. On a dataset containing 434 observations, the supervised learning approach was initially employed to train a Decision Tree model. In the subsequent phase, ensemble learning techniques were utilized to develop both the Voting Classifier and the Random Forest model. The performance of all models was assessed using 10-fold cross-validation with stratification.The Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Voting Classifier models reported accuracies of 76.28%, 96.77%, and 99.54% respectively. The Voting Classifier led in classifying NYHA I and III with 98.7% and 100% accuracy. Both Random Forest and Voting Classifier flawlessly classified NYHA II at 100%. However, for NYHA IV, Random Forest achieved a perfect score, while the Voting Classifier reported 90%. The Decision Tree showed the least effectiveness among all the models tested. In our opinion, the results seem satisfactory in terms of their supporting role in clinical practice. In particular, the use of a machine learning tool could reduce or even eliminate the bias in the physician’s assessment. In addition, future research should consider testing other variables in different datasets to gain a better understanding of the significant factors affecting heart failure.

  • A magnetic imprinted polymer nano-adsorbent with embedded quantum dots and mesoporous carbon for the microextraction of triazine herbicides
    • Nurhasima Phirisi
    • Justyna Płotka-Wasylka
    • Opas Bunkoed
    2024 JOURNAL OF CHROMATOGRAPHY A

    A magnetic molecularly imprinted polymer (MMIP) adsorbent incorporating amino-functionalized magnetite nanoparticles, nitrogen-doped graphene quantum dots and mesoporous carbon (MIP@MPC@NGQDs@ Fe3O4–NH2) was fabricated to extract triazine herbicides from fruit juice. The embedded magnetite nanoparticles simplified the isolation of the adsorbent from the sample solution. The N-GQDs and MPC enhanced adsorption by affinity binding with triazines. The MIP layer provided highly specific recognition sites for the selective adsorption of three target triazines. The extracted triazines were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) coupled with diode-array detection (DAD). The developed method exhibited linearity from 1.5 to 100.0 μg L 1 with a detection limit of 0.5 μg L 1. Recoveries from spiked fruit juice samples were in the range of 80.1– 108.4 %, with a relative standard deviation of less than 6.0 %. The developed MMIP adsorbent demonstrated good selectivity, high extraction efficiency, ease of fabrication and use, and good stability.

  • A magnetic stir bar sorbent of metal organic frameworks, carbon foam decorated zinc oxide and cryogel to enrich and extract parabens and bisphenols from food samples
    • Sirintorn Jullakan
    • Natnaree Rattanakunsong
    • Justyna Płotka-Wasylka
    • Opas Bunkoed
    2024 JOURNAL OF CHROMATOGRAPHY B-ANALYTICAL TECHNOLOGIES IN THE BIOMEDICAL AND LIFE SCIENCES

    A porous composite magnetic stir bar adsorbent was fabricated for the extraction and enrichment of parabens and bisphenols from selected beverage samples. The adsorbent comprised a metal organic framework, carbon foam decorated zinc oxide and magnetic nanoparticles embedded in polyvinyl alcohol cryogel. The porous composite stir bar adsorbent could adsorb parabens and bisphenols via hydrogen bonding, π-π and hydrophobic interactions. In the best conditions, linearity was good from 5.0 to 200.0 µg/L for methyl paraben, ethyl paraben and bisphenol A and from 10.0 to 200.0 µg/L for bisphenol B and butyl paraben. Limits of detection ranged from 1.5 to 3.0 µg/L. The developed composite stir bar was successfully applied to extract and determine parabens and bisphenols in fruit juice, beer and milk. Recoveries ranged from 89.5 to 99.5 % with RSDs lower than 6 %. The developed sorbent and new methodology were evaluated in terms of its green character with satisfactory results.

  • A Mammography Data Management Application for Federated Learning
    • Dmytro Tkachenko
    • Magdalena Mazur-Milecka
    2024

    This study aimed to develop and assess an application designed to enhance the management of a local client database consisting of mammographic images with a focus on ensuring that images are suitably and uniformly prepared for federated learning applications. The application supports a comprehensive approach, starting with a versatile image-loading function that supports DICOM files from various medical imaging devices and settings. It also aims to standardize the labeling and pre-processing of new images, statistical analysis and data visualization of mammographic images across all participating healthcare units. Initial image preprocessing is significantly enhanced through the use of Wiener and CLAHE filters, aimed at reducing noise and improving contrast, respectively, to ensure the highest quality of images for diagnostic purposes. Further refinement in the preprocessing pipeline is achieved with a U-Net model, trained on publicly available databases, which excels in segmenting the breast tissue from images, thereby eliminating irrelevant background and artifacts. This meticulous preparation of images not only standardizes data quality across multiple medical institutions but also facilitates collaborative model training within federated learning frameworks. The program allows for the review of images and their metadata, enables labeling of images with the ability to mark regions of interest (ROI), and utilize a pre-trained model for preliminary BI-RADS classification. A notable addition to the application is the integration of functionalities, thanks to the implementation of Grad-CAM model, designed to elucidate the decision-making processes of deep learning models. This integration further enriches the application's utility in supporting diagnostic and analytical tasks in mammography, providing clear insights into the interpretive reasoning behind model predictions.

  • A method to synthesise groove cam Geneva mechanisms with increased dwell period
    • Viacheslav Pasika
    • Pavlo Nosko
    • Oleksii Nosko
    • Oleksandr Bashta
    • Volodymyr Heletiy
    • Volodymyr Melnyk
    2024 Full text PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS PART C-JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING SCIENCE

    The present study develops a method to synthesise the groove cam Geneva mechanism with increased dwell period. The main condition of the synthesis is to provide the desired law of motion of the wheel. Additional synthesis conditions are the limitation of the maximum pressure angle and the limitation of the minimum curvature radius of the cam profile. Unlike the conventional Geneva mechanisms, the synthesised groove cam Geneva mechanisms enable motion of the wheel due to an arbitrarily specified law, double locking of the wheel at its dwell-to-motion and motion-to-dwell transitions, absence of soft impacts in the extreme positions. The analysis shows that for the cycloidal law of motion, number of slots in range 3 to 15 and additional dwell coefficient in range 0 to 0.7, the operating time coefficient can be provided in wide range from 0.053 to 0.765. The effectiveness of the method is illustrated by numerical examples.

  • A methodology for ultimate strength assessment of ship hull girder accounting for enhanced corrosion degradation modelling
    • Krzysztof Wołoszyk
    • Floris Goerlandt
    • Jakub Montewka
    2024 MARINE STRUCTURES

    The presented work shows a methodology for the ultimate strength assessment of a ship hull, considering enhanced corrosion modelling. The approach is based on the classical Smith method. However, the recent findings regarding the impact of corrosion degradation on ultimate strength are incorporated. To this end, the stress–strain relationships for particular elements composing ship hull cross-section are modified using a specially developed correction factor. The proposed approach is validated with experimental results of the corroded box girders available in the literature, showing very good agreement. Further, a case study of a VLCC tanker ship is presented, and a comparison between contemporary and enhanced corrosion degradation modelling in terms of resulting ultimate strength is presented. The results indicate that the currently used method may significantly overestimate the hull’s structure capacity, especially considering the long exploitation period. Thus, current approaches lead to a non-conservative assessment of the ship hull girder’s ultimate strength, potentially increasing the risk of failure. It is therefore recommended to further investigate the proposed method, especially in the context of risk-based ship design approaches and holistic maritime transportation risk management.

  • A model for agribusiness supply chain risk management using fuzzy logic. Case study: Grain route from Ukraine to Poland
    • Ievgen Medvediev
    • Dmitriy Muzylyov
    • Jakub Montewka
    2024 Full text TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART E-LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION REVIEW

    In order to establish new logistics routes, it is necessary to address several technical and organizational issues, among others. One of the most important criteria for evaluating the performance of a supply chain is the delivery time, proactive consideration of potential hazards and associated uncertainties that may occur along the route. However, the existing solutions are often passive and reactive, based on statistics, thus not leaving much room for proactive risk mitigation measures. Therefore, there is a need for a foreseeing modern approach to account for the impact of anticipated hazards on delivery time. The aim of this study is to develop a model for determining delivery time considering expected risk factors (RF), based on mathematical tools of fuzzy logic and actual background knowledge elicited from the literature and experts. The paper identifies primary technical and operational hazards that occur during loading and transport and converts them into risk factors. The risk factors are then quantified and fed into a fuzzy model developed with the Matlab Fuzzy Logic Toolbox and assembled in the Simulink environment. The application of the model is demonstrated in three case studies reflecting three potential grain supply chains (SC) from Ukraine to Poland: classical transport by rail grain hoppers (SC1); transport by containers on railway platforms (SC2); transport by bulk grain trucks (SC3). The resulting travel time for the analysed SCs is between 49 and 71 hours for SC1, between 45 and 62 hours for SC2 and between 42 and 62 hours for SC3. In addition, the outliers of the travel time values beyond the 1.5 quantiles were defined according to the uncertainty band. The results of the fuzzy model were compared with the results of the deterministic approach in the concurrent validation and a good agreement was found. This proves the appropriateness of the fuzzy model calculations and the possibility of using alternative SCs in grain delivery. The main benefit of the proposed model is a new universal tool based on a holistic and active approach to risk assessment using fuzzy logic.